Oregon agriculture faces migrant crackdowns

New measures targeting illegal immigrants could hit every aspect of farming

ESMERALDA BERMUDEZ

The Oregonian

For decades, seasonal farm labor has been a sure thing, but pending federal and state immigration restrictions could trigger a critical shortage -- later this year or next -- leaving growers scrambling for workers.

At stake is Oregon's $26 billion agriculture industry, second only to high-tech among the state's economic engines. During the peak summer season, the farm labor force nearly doubles, to an estimated 80,000 workers, of which 50 percent to 75 percent are illegal, according to most estimates.

Economists say losing that much of the labor force threatens to paralyze not only the farm sector but also related industries such as food processors, restaurants, lenders and shippers.

Farmers might be driven to outsource, mechanize and, if they can afford it, raise wages to lure native Oregonians to pick fields. But given how cost-conscious and competitive the agriculture industry is, higher pay is unlikely to stabilize the market, economists say.

Oregon's nursery industry alone is a billion-dollar sector that ranks second nationally, far outdistancing other agricultural commodities in Oregon. Greens harvested in places such as Salem and Hillsboro are shipped to the Midwest, the Northeast and as far as Japan and China.

So it's no surprise that angst over labor is intense -- more than it has ever been, said John Aguirre, executive director of the Oregon Association of Nurseries.

"Did the train crash this year?" Aguirre said. "No. But people are looking down the track, and we can see where the crash happens. That is, no doubt, going to occur."

Pressure mounts

Workers used to be the least of Kevin Klupenger's worries. The Salem nursery manager would put up a sign, and immediately willing hands would line up to prune and propagate his trees and shrubs.

But today, a multitude of immigration efforts on national, state and local levels stack up against employers and laborers alike.

The biggest is a federal proposal requiring employers to fire workers with invalid Social Security numbers. The so-called no-match rule could hit employers with fines and criminal prosecution.

Last fall, a federal judge barred the government from mailing no-match letters to 140,000 employers while the court reviews the measure. The measure will remain in legal limbo at least until a court hearing scheduled for Aug. 1, when the Department of Homeland Security could call for the stay to be lifted. If the court determines that the measure is legally sound, the judge could lift his order and the letters would go out and the requirement enforced.

"If these rules are implemented as this administration desires, they would literally cripple the agricultural industry in the state of Oregon," said Ron Guerra, a labor relations lawyer with Jordan Schrader Ramis. "The available and willing work force will not be present at any cost to work the fields and harvest the crops."

Adding to the mix are two laws recently implemented by the Bush administration: One raised fines significantly for employers who knowingly hire illegal immigrants and the other, introduced this month, requires federal contractors to verify the status of employees. That could affect Oregon growers and dairies that contract with federal prisons or schools.

Farmers and other employers also are waiting to see how Oregon's own immigration measures might affect their work force. Key among those is a law taking effect in July preventing illegal immigrants from obtaining driver's licenses.

Another state measure that allows police agencies to check legal status is gaining steam. So is a local measure in Columbia County that would fine contractors who hire undocumented workers. If passed, other towns could follow suit.

For critics of illegal immigration, such as Jim Ludwick, the climate of fear offers an ideal opportunity for employers to begin playing by the rules. Ludwick, the president of Oregonians for Immigration Reform, said farmers will be worse off if they undercut one another with cheap labor and put off investing in new machinery.

"You can't say, 'I'm just going to take a chance and keep doing things the way I always have,' " Ludwick said. "You have to mechanize, switch crops, try something less labor-intensive. That's what a modern society does."

Looking ahead

Some employers already are moving to organize in ways never seen before.

Nurseries and restaurants last fall gathered more than 20 business associations -- most related to agriculture -- to form the Coalition for Working Oregon, a lobbyist group bent on pushing federal and state officials to protect Oregon's labor supply.

"Things are different than in the past," said Jeff Stone, a lobbyist with the Oregon Association of Nurseries and leader of the coalition. "There's a chill in the air. The climate and the verbosity of some of the opponents is not productive and doesn't tell us where to get labor."

Many individual farmers say their labor supply is not as plentiful as it was in the past, but so far, it has been enough to squeeze by. But that creates competition among some growers. Smaller farms, or those that do not offer worker housing, are at a disadvantage. Yet large operations that have greater amenities are more exposed to large-scale immigration raids, growers said.

In the Willamette Valley, Oregon's agricultural epicenter, machines are slowly beginning to scale back reliance on laborers for cane berry, blueberry and cherry harvests. Labor supply has remained steady there, but it is too soon to tell whether it will fall short this summer. The same can be said of the work force in Hood River, where laborers traipse up and down rolling hills picking pears, which make up 24 percent of the nation's supply.

In eastern Oregon, where 25 percent of the nation's onions are produced, growers have struggled to hold onto workers in the past year or two, said Lynne Jensen, an onion and potato specialist with Oregon State University's extension service. The few who have mechanized will have a serious advantage over area competitors if the work force shrinks.

"People are struggling to make do with fewer people," Jensen said. "They're using more herbicides, trying to make it work without the hand labor."

Possible outcomes

Economists say a sudden loss of agricultural workers would have a negative ripple effect on Oregon's economy.

Agriculture provides one out of 10 jobs in Oregon. It is the last of the state's major resource-based economies. And close to 80 percent of what is grown in Oregon is exported.

"Oregon is an agricultural powerhouse," said Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore. "For the health of Oregon's economy and for the millions of consumers who rely on Oregon's agricultural bounty, it is vital that the state has a legal work force to get its agricultural products to market."

Wyden said Congress must find a comprehensive solution for immigration reform.

Economists say that losing thousands of farm laborers would also mean losing their tax dollars and money schools receive for educating their children. Departing laborers would no longer buy houses, rent apartments or shop at local businesses.

Employers -- from agriculture, restaurants, hospitality, food processing and other sectors -- would fiercely compete to lure the unemployed and low-paid, said state labor economist Art Ayre. That could backfill some jobs, but it also could force wages to rise, harming farmers already operating on tight margins.

Still, the higher cost of some commodities, such as wheat and blueberries, along with the weakening value of the U.S. dollar, could allow some growers to increase wages and remain competitive.

In the long run, unemployment could increase, said Bruce Sorte, an economist with OSU. Farmers who could not pay more might turn to outsourcing -- relocating their farms to other countries -- and triggering closures here, he said.

Unless Congress reconsiders the way seasonal farmworkers are legally admitted into the country, the existing federal program will not help. In fiscal 2006, about 46,400 seasonal workers entered the United States with permits, making up only a fraction of the nation's labor supply, which exceeds 1 million during peak season.

At no other time has labor been such a critical issue, and with fuel and fertilizer costs, the burden increases, said Bob Boyle, regional vice president of Northwest Farm Credit Services. His company has studied and financed the agricultural industry in the Northwest for nearly three decades. The lender services about $7 billion in loans, with $1.8 billion of that borrowed by 4,000 farmers across Oregon.

Some growers can ride out a labor crisis for a while, Boyle said, but "you can only endure for so long."