INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY

April 13, 2007

Immigration Reform Has A Shot In 2007, But No Sure Thing

By Sean Higgins

Standing at a dusty patch of Yuma, Ariz., with border control agents and Marines, President Bush on April 9 renewed his call for immigration reform.

This time, he says, it actually could happen. A bipartisan bill was introduced late last month by Reps. Jeff Flake (news, bio, voting record), R-Ariz., and Luis Gutierrez (news, bio, voting record), D-Ill.

"I've been working to bring Republicans and Democrats together to resolve outstanding issues so that Congress can pass a comprehensive bill," Bush said, adding, "I think the atmosphere up there is good right now."

How close are they really? While Congress has shifted control to the Democrats since the last push, it's unclear how much the underlying dynamics have changed. Most GOP lawmakers remain opposed to Bush's ideas and even pro-immigrant Democrats are skittish. But both sides think the odds for a comprehensive bill have improved.

50-50 Chance For Deal

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (news, bio, voting record), D-Calif., has told Bush that he'll need to deliver at least 70 House Republican votes to pass a comprehensive bill -- something he hasn't been able to muster before.

"I'd say right now the chances of a bill passing are 50-50," said Kurt Bardella, spokesman for the House Immigration Reform Caucus, which seeks to restrict immigration.

John Gay, senior vice president of government relations for the National Restaurant Association, which wants a comprehensive bill, says the 50-50 figure may be the only thing his group agrees with the caucus on.

"We are in the best position we have been in in years" to pass a reform, Gay says.

A top aide to the House GOP leadership said the election upended the old assumptions about how the issue played. Republicans suffered from Congress' inability to complete any reforms but that left unclear what reforms the public wants.

In any event, the aide says, GOP lawmakers see most of their voters as opposed to anything other than border control. Democrats, meanwhile, would just like to get the issue "off the table" but without rallying GOP voters or boosting Bush in the process.

A House Democratic leadership aide says they expect the vote to come up in July.

Bush A Little Tougher Now

Bush's proposals would let immigrants remain following background checks after paying $3,500 in fines. They would then be eligible for "earned legalization." The latter involves immigrants paying another $10,000 in fines and taxes. It would also allow a guest worker program should certain border control "triggers" such as additional fence construction be met.

That's far steeper than a Bush-backed Senate bill passed last year that had only $3,250 in fines. In another nod to immigration critics, Bush has touted increased funding for border security from $4.6billion in 2001 to $10.4 billion in 2007.

The Flake-Gutierrez bill incorporates much of this approach but many details differ. It also would create a guest worker visa program called H-2C for people recruited to work in the U.S. Skill levels aren't specified. The three-year visa could be renewed. Their bill includes fines of only $1,500 for earned legalization but does require illegals to return to their country of origin first.

It's an all or nothing deal, Bush says. "The lesson of (past) experiences is clear: All elements of the issue must be addressed together," he said.

An array of business groups led by the Chamber of Commerce has formed the "Essential Worker Immigration Coalition" to lobby Congress for a comprehensive bill. They're backing Flake-Gutierrez.

Others remain steadfastly opposed. Last week, 97 House members -- all but two of them Republicans -- signed a letter calling the comprehensive approach an "amnesty" plan. That is out of the question, they say.

"Amnesty legislation rewards lawbreakers with the greatest honor our country can bestow -- citizenship," said Rep. Lamar Smith (news, bio, voting record), R-Texas., one of the signers. "Such legislation would create an endless stream of guest workers who drive down wages and take the jobs of American workers, including legal immigrants."

That means some serious arm-twisting will be needed before any such bill can pass the House, which has been the stumbling block for comprehensive reform.

Last May, the Senate passed a comprehensive reform bill in a filibuster-proof 62-36 vote. The House followed in September by passing a border control-only measure, 283-138.

The two chambers failed to come up with a compromise comprehensive bill. Ultimately only a narrower border fence bill was passed.

Congress has shifted control since then, but it is unclear how much difference that makes. Many of the new Democrats won in marginal districts where immigration was a thorny issue and as a result are less than eager to tackle it.

The Democratic leadership is on record supporting the comprehensive approach but has shown little enthusiasm for it, opting instead to focus on Iraq and more populist issues like the minimum wage.

Speaker Pelosi called the Flake/Gutierrez bill an "excellent framework" but gave only the broadest outlines of what the final bill should be.

Democrats' allies are cautious, too. The Service Employee International Union, the nation's large private sector labor group, has urged Congress to act. While many unions see immigration as a threat to wage levels, SEIU sees immigrants as potential new union members.

But SEIU hasn't endorsed any comprehensive bill and has pointedly said that the Flake-Gutierrez bill is "impractical" and "bad policy." A spokeswoman said major changes are needed to the guest-worker provision before they will lobby for it.

"We feel it is moving in the right direction," said SEIU spokeswoman Ali Jost. "But we are waiting for some forward momentum (in Congress) before we make a decision."