U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT

May 13, 2007

Immigration Gyrations

Capitol Hill gears up for another raucous debate over reform

By Angie C. Marek

There wasn't much for President Bush to like when Democrats grabbed majorities in the House and the Senate in last November's midterm elections. But he did say he spotted one silver lining: a "good chance" to pass immigration reform. A former border-state governor, Bush has said repeatedly that he hopes legislation to allow foreigners to come to the United States "to do jobs Americans won't do" will be a hallmark of his legacy. But the effort appeared to implode last year when the Senate passed a bill that included guest-worker and path-to-citizenship programs, while the House approved a measure that mostly emphasized border enforcement. Ultimately, the two approaches could not be reconciled.

Now everyone is trying again. The Senate is embarking on what will no doubt be two furious weeks of floor debate, which many believe is the last, best chance to pass an immigration bill before the 2008 elections. But the obstacles are daunting. Several key Republicans have shifted to the right, to a more punitive approach, pulling the party toward positions untenable to many Democrats. And after three months of exhaustive negotiations, Democrats and Republicans could agree only on the loosest sketches of a possible deal last week. "It's like a horror movie where you're on the edge of your seat, wondering how it'll all turn out," says Tamar Jacoby, an immigration expert with the Manhattan Institute. But with each passing day, optimism seems to be in shorter supply. The upcoming debate, like a lot of horror flicks, may end up with lots of blood on the floor, no one left standing, and the need for an equally gory sequel, maybe in two years, after the next election.

Pressure. Despite intense pressure to find common ground, the prognosis is anything but certain. Sen. Arlen Specter, the moderate Pennsylvania Republican, calls the country's immigration system an "unmitigated disaster." After Congress faltered last year, many cities and states, including Colorado and Georgia, passed their own enforcement legislation, and a host of lawsuits ensued. A series of controversial worksite raids, meanwhile, netted almost 2,800 alleged illegal workers between October and March. Craig Regelbrugge of the American Nursery and Landscape Association says many farmers are expecting "severe" shortages of seasonal workers this summer because it appears fewer immigrants are attempting to cross the southern border.

Polls show the public wants moderate solutions. An April USA Today/Gallup Poll found that almost 4 in 5 Americans favor giving the roughly 12 million illegal immigrants already in the country a way to become U.S. citizens. Only 14 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents polled said immigrants should be deported without the opportunity to come back and legalize their status. But a vocal portion of the GOP base is arguing that illegal immigration is simply out of control and is putting pressure on congressional Republicans to get tough.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, wanting political cover, has said she won't bring a bill to the floor until 70 House Republicans support it. A months-long effort by longtime Senate collaborators John McCain and Edward Kennedy to craft a compromise collapsed early this year, reportedly over Kennedy's demand for labor-related provisions like wage guarantees. Since then, Bush administration officials have attended two-hour meetings at the Senate three days a week, trying to craft a measure Republicans can support. Democrats joined the deliberations several weeks ago, but so far, only modest progress has been made on what some have called a " grand bargain." It's a long way from a workable bill, though, and Nevada Sen. Harry Reid's proposal to resurrect last year's bipartisan bill if negotiations stall brought almost immediate threats of a filibuster.

That's because the political climate has changed radically. McCain and Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, both formerly cheerleaders for guest-worker and path-to-citizenship provisions, are keeping mum as they run for president. New Democratic senators like Missouri's Claire McCaskill and Montana's Jon Tester, meanwhile, campaigned against any sort of amnesty for illegal immigrants. Now Sen. Jon Kyl, a three-term Arizona Republican who opposed the Senate approach championed last year by Kennedy, has emerged as the crucial figure being courted by the White House.

A host of positions are shifting rapidly; experts say what emerges could represent a bedrock change in America's immigration philosophy. Kyl and his GOP allies have recently agreed to a provision to give many illegal immigrants legal status if they pay fines and return at least briefly to their home countries, which hard-liners consider a minimum price to pay to come here legally. Disagreements remain about whether temporary workers in fields like construction should be able to stay in the country and become citizens; Kyl has long said he thinks "temporary means temporary" for guest workers. Democrats have also for the first time accepted the idea of "triggers"-border enforcement guidelines that must be met before a guest-worker program could even begin. They've also agreed to reconsider current policies that allow most immigrants to come to the United States only if they're sponsored by a family member who is already here. Republicans would like future candidates to be evaluated on a point system taking into account education levels and English skills. That sort of legislative back-and-forth is likely to continue in the days ahead. Whether it will ultimately amount to a comprehensive reform bill-or just a horror flick-is impossible to determine.