Just a little, immigration helped Democrats

Many agree reform was a side issue, but in the new Congress, reform may be a real possibility.

Anita Kumar, Jose Cardenas and Saundra Amrhein

WASHINGTON — Six months ago, as the nation watched the emotional debate and massive marches across the country, it appeared that immigration reform would be the issue that defined the midterm election.

Instead, it was overshadowed by the nation’s displeasure with the war in Iraq, dissatisfaction with President Bush and scandal in Congress.

Still, it does appear the issue drove more Hispanic voters to the polls to vote Democratic.

The result is a Congress controlled by Democrats who may be willing to pass the kind of comprehensive immigration reform that the House and Senate could not agree on earlier this year.

“I couldn’t be happier,” Tampa immigration attorney John Ovink said. “I am a firm believer that we have a new course.”

Immigration may not have been the defining issue, but it did influence campaigns from Delaware to Minnesota to Colorado.

Supporters of comprehensive immigration reform today are feeling good about the defeat of several candidates who pushed for tougher enforcement — including Indiana Rep. John Hostettler and Arizona Rep. J.D. Hayworth, who is seeking a recount.

Tamar Jacoby of the conservative Manhattan Institute supports comprehensive reform, and said Republicans who ran anti-illegal immigrant ads came across simply as anti-immigrant.

“The Republican party ran some of the ugliest ads I’ve ever seen,” she said. “In the election, it looked like Republicans were against immigrants and Democrats were for them.”

But some immigration hardliners, such as Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, lost for other reasons and others, such as Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, won re-election.

Opponents of comprehensive reform said the other side is overestimating immigration’s impact.

It “was not the deciding factor,” said Rosemary Jenks, director of government relations for Numbers USA, a group that supports enforcement and not citizenship. “The election was about George W. Bush and the war in Iraq.”

Nathan Gonzales, political editor at the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report, agreed, calling immigration a side issue that did not take center stage. “This election was more about change,” he said.

The Hispanic vote

Polls showed that, like all voters, Hispanics were concerned about Iraq and corruption in Congress, but the issue of immigration ranked higher for them in importance than for other voters.

Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, said exit polling showed that Hispanics made up 8 percent of the electorate Tuesday, a record for an off-year election. That means the rallies and subsequent efforts to register Hispanic voters may have paid off.

And both parties acknowledge that Republican opposition to the proposal allowing a pathway to citizenship for many of the nation’s 12-million illegal immigrants may have turned Hispanics to the Democrats.

Exit polls showed that Democrats captured 69 percent of the Hispanic vote and Republicans about 30 percent. (President Bush received about 41 percent of their vote two years ago.)

“The great gain that Bush had made came disproportionately with immigrants” said Simon Rosenberg, President of NDN, a progressive advocacy group. “The price they have paid has come from the part of the community that was open to the Republican message.”

A new Congress

Supporters of comprehensive immigration reform consider themselves among the biggest winners of last week’s election.

Lawmakers had struggled — and failed — to pass what was supposed to be landmark immigration reform this year.
Bush had made it his top domestic priority, but many Republicans had scoffed at his proposal to expand guest worker programs and allow illegal immigrants to become citizens. But a Democrat-controlled Congress might be able to get legislation Bush supports passed.

“I think we have a good chance,” Bush said at a news conference the day after the election. “It’s a vital issue … on which we can find some common ground with Democrats.”

Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the presumptive House speaker, has said she wants to deal with immigration though she has not listed it as one of her six priorities which include raising the minimum wage, energy independence and stem cell research.

But she said last week that immigration could be a chance for initial compromises between a Democrat Congress and Republican president.

The Senate passed a bill supporting security, guest worker programs and a path to citizenship. The House rejected the proposal, demanding only enforcement. In the end, Congress authorized a 700-mile-long fence along the U.S.-Mexican border.

Ovink, the Tampa immigration attorney, said he is “cautiously optimistic” that Congress will pass immigration reform that goes even further than the Senate bill by the spring.

Jeanne Butterfield, executive director of the American Immigration Lawyers Association, also was encouraged but said hard work still lies ahead.

“It’s still going to be a struggle,” she said. “It’s going to need a core of supporters on both sides of the aisle … It will be a challenge, and no slam dunk.”