SAN ANTONIO EXPRESS-NEWS November 10, 2006 Migration reform now has chancePresident Bush's loss of partisan backing in Congress likely will ensure uphill battles for the remaining items on his to-do list — except, ironically, where immigration is concerned. Several Republican House members who back immigration restrictions were ousted in Tuesday's election, giving the president's proposals their best chance of becoming reality in the long immigration debate. Assuming, that is, that reforming the nation's immigration system doesn't drop off the new Democratic leadership's list of priorities. "I think we have a good chance. There's an issue on which we can find some common ground with Democrats," Bush told reporters Wednesday. He had outlined his support for some type of temporary guest worker program in January 2004. But since then, he has been sidelined, caught between an influential wing of his own party that hates the guest worker idea and is focused solely on border security, and the many Democrats who want a major overhaul.
The House and Senate passed competing bills this year that never were given the chance to be reconciled into something Bush could sign into law. Matters were further complicated during the fall campaigns as the enforcement-only movement pushed numerous Democratic congressional candidates to muddle or shift positions so as to not appear soft on homeland security. Analysts say Democratic control of Congress offers a better chance for immigration reforms that go beyond border enforcement — but many of them caution against considering it a done deal. "The House can only go so far without looking like crazy liberals," said Rodolfo de la Garza, a political science professor at Columbia University and vice president of the Tomás Rivera Policy Institute, a Los Angeles-based think tank. "It's not clear how much they're willing to risk on immigration," Garza said. Democrats don't exactly march in lockstep on the issue, and details remain murky as to what elements their leaders in Congress would include in a future reform bill. They could resurrect the far-reaching bill approved in the Senate in May, which called for multiple programs including temporary work permits and a chance for legal status for the country's estimated 12 million undocumented immigrants. Still in limbo is the already approved and partly funded border fence. Democrats could try to delay or deny funding for actual construction. But some observers said one immigration-related issue that would be readily approved before all others is creating a governmental work verification system for employers to check employees' identities and legal status. "It's much less controversial than other proposed programs and both chambers already agreed it's necessary to address the employment magnet," said Deborah Meyers, senior policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute, a liberal-leaning Washington think tank. Immigrant advocates readily pointed to the defeat of some congressional hard-liners as evidence that the security-only strategy backfired with voters. In a bellwether race watched nationally, a border district in Arizona wound up in the hands of Gabrielle Giffords, a Democrat who defeated Randy Graf, a Republican known for his immigration restrictions stance. The result was duplicated elsewhere, with similar Republican casualties: U.S. Rep. J.D. Hayworth in Arizona, U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, U.S. Rep. John Hostettler of Indiana — who chaired the House immigration subcommittee — and Bob Beauprez, a candidate for Colorado governor. U.S. Rep. Lamar Smith, R-San Antonio, a traditional supporter of enhancing security while reducing immigration, was re-elected. But the Democratic House takeover will cancel his otherwise likely appointment as chairman of the House Judiciary Committee. "These election results prove that demagoguery is not a good strategy," said Cecilia Muñoz, vice president of the National Council of La Raza, a leading migrant advocacy group. "It was supposed to rally the Republican base, but all it proved is that the hard-liners are a loud but small segment of the party." Representatives of that segment begged to differ. Deflated, they chalked up their defeat to a popular backlash against Bush and the Iraq war. "It's a total disaster for us," said U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., the most prominent face of the immigration-restriction movement in Congress, who founded the Congressional Immigration Reform Caucus and expanded its numbers and influence. He predicted Democrats now will easily pass a guest worker program, but he found some solace in the lingering impact of his movement, which he said likely will prevent "full-blown amnesty." Though rarely reaching common ground, both migrant advocates and restrictionists agreed that newly-elected Democrats will have to be held accountable for their campaign promises on immigration reform.
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