SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE July 26, 2006
Poll says voters want immigration reform Most voters, Democrats, Republicans and independents, want Congress to act on immigration reform this year, a national poll released Tuesday found. More than 70 percent also favor a bill the Senate passed in May that would beef up immigration enforcement but also would grant legal status to most of the nation's estimated 12 million illegal immigrants and would admit temporary guest workers, according to the July 9-13 survey conducted jointly by the Tarrance Group, a Republican polling firm, and Democratic pollster Lake Research Partners. With midterm elections approaching Nov. 7, the poll found that likely voters rank immigration among their top three concerns, along with the economy and Iraq. Two-thirds of the 1,100 people interviewed said they would support a candidate who endorsed immigration reform.
The poll results come as two Senate Republicans announced a plan that would phase in a guest-worker program only after border security has been addressed -- an approach they say could lead to a compromise between the polarized camps. That plan, drafted by Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and Indiana Rep. Mike Pence, would double the Border Patrol and expand immigration enforcement in the first two years, then offer temporary work visas to illegal immigrants if they first leave the country. After 17 years in temporary status, those guest workers would be eligible to apply for legal permanent residence and, thereafter, citizenship. "If that brings people to the table, it could be a helpful start," said Tamar Jacoby, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, which commissioned the survey, along with the National Immigration Forum.
Both groups favor the Senate- passed bill. "This is the beginning, we hope, of a next chapter of negotiations."
Rather than negotiating a compromise bill this summer, House Republicans, who passed an enforcement-only bill in December, are holding unusual hearings across the country criticizing the Senate legislation as an amnesty for illegal immigrants. Senators, in turn, have launched their own field hearings to drum up support for their plan.
"There is solid support from three-quarters of the American people for a comprehensive immigration reform bill this year, and what's remarkable is that House Republican leaders have opted for a strategy of attacking a comprehensive immigration-reform package passed by the Senate," said Frank Sharry, director of the National Immigration Forum, a Washington group that favors more liberal immigration policies. "They seem to be doing so as a means of riling up their base that might otherwise stay home on election day in November." Pollster Brian Nienaber of the Tarrance Group said that when 73 percent of Republicans surveyed support an immigration-reform plan that includes giving illegal immigrants a path to citizenship and creating a guest-worker program, the lack of flexibility by House Republicans may be a miscalculation.
"The Senate's comprehensive approach that has been maligned in the House was awfully popular with the rank-and-file Republican voters in our survey," Nienaber said. He said Republican leaders should be concerned that they are coming to be viewed as anti-immigrant and may alienate the nation's growing bloc of Latino voters. "If we as a party have this group walk away from us, it's a troublesome sign for 2006," Nienaber said.
But Steve Camarota, policy director at the Center for Immigration Studies, which favors reducing immigration, both legal and illegal, said the poll results were misleading. "If you tell the public how many people you're talking about, they're much more negative," he said. "If you ask, 'Do you think it's a good idea to double legal immigration from 1 million a year to 2 million?' most people think that level is too high." The Tarrance/Lake telephone survey of 1,100 registered voters and those "likely to vote" had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Immigration survey
Selected results of the immigration poll conducted jointly by the Tarrance Group
and Lake Research Partners:
Those who say it is extremely or very important that Congress
"solve the problem of illegal immigration this year."
All voters 62%
Republicans 73%
Independents 59%
Democrats 51%
Swing voters 61%
Those who favor legislation which would "provide resources to
greatly increase border security; impose much tougher penalties
on employers who hire illegal workers; allow additional foreign workers
to come to the United States to work for a temporary period;
create a system in which illegal immigrants could come forward
and register, pay a fine and receive a temporary work permit;
provide these temporary workers with a multi-year path to earned citizenship, i
f they get to the end of the line and meet certain requirements like
living crime-free, learning English, paying taxes."*
All voters 71%
Republicans 73%
Independents 67%
Democrats 70%
*These are the main provisions of the immigration bill the Senate passed in May.
"Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate who
supports immigration legislation?"
Would be more likely to vote for such a candidate 66%
Would be less likely to vote for such a candidate 22%
Unsure 9%
No difference 4%
Note: Percentages do not total 100 because of rounding.
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